Energy resilience is a major element of Europe’s ongoing strategic transformation, with significant investment needed for electrification and power infrastructure. But as the war in Iran brings turbulence to global energy markets, Hilde Jenssen, co-portfolio manager of the Nordea’s Empower Europe Strategy, discusses the short- and long-term impacts of the current conflict on Europe’s strategic reset.
The 2022 invasion of Ukraine had a major impact on energy markets and the broader global economy. Will the conflict in Iran have a similar impact?
There are clear parallels: both episodes serve as catalysts for energy security spending, pushing governments and corporates to accelerate investment in supply resilience, infrastructure, and diversification. In 2022, the Russia-Ukraine shock was an acute, Europe-centric supply crisis – especially in gas – with emergency policy responses, price spikes, and short-cycle opportunities tied to scarcity and substitution. The current Middle East-driven disruption is different in character. It is less about immediate physical shortages and more about a persistent geopolitical risk premium, with markets increasingly focused on oil, shipping routes, and regional instability.
As a result, policy responses are less reactive and more strategic, reinforcing multi-year capex commitments in areas such as grids, LNG, storage, efficiency and domestically anchored energy systems. This shifts the investment opportunity from volatile, tactical trades toward companies with long-duration growth visibility, regulated or contracted cash flows, and structural alignment with energy security and decarbonisation goals – suggesting more durable long-term impacts on capital allocation than the 2022 shock.
As a large importer of natural gas, will Europe be uniquely affected by this conflict?
Europe remains structurally vulnerable to gas flows from the Middle East, and the current conflict demonstrates how geopolitical tensions still matter for price formation and security of supply over the long term. However, that vulnerability is precisely why this conflict is reinforcing – rather than derailing – investment in domestic energy security across Europe and allied markets.
Europe’s €300bn REPowerEU programme anchors a multi-year response focused on reducing import dependence through grid modernisation, accelerated renewables, energy storage, efficiency upgrades in buildings, and improved access to critical raw materials. Similar dynamics are visible in the UK and parts of Asia, while the US benefits from its role as both a capital goods supplier and an energy exporter.
Within the Nordea 1 – Empower Europe Fund, where are you identifying long-term opportunities aligned with energy resilience?
The most compelling potential sits in grid infrastructure and transmission, rather than upstream exploration or short-cycle fossil investments. This involves upgrading ageing networks, expanding interconnectors, and deploying advanced cables, transformers, and digital control systems to handle rising electricity demand from renewables, industry, data centres, and transport.
In addition, we are optimistic about downstream electrification themes, such as energy efficiency in buildings, heat pumps, storage, and power management technologies. This will reduce dependence on gas and improve system resilience. Renewables and clean energy generation remain important, but without grid capacity and flexibility, they cannot scale; as a result, capital is increasingly flowing into regulated networks, equipment suppliers and industrial supply chains that underpin electrification.
Supported by REPowerEU and national programmes, this long-duration investment opportunity is centred on predictable cash flows, high barriers to entry, and a foundational rebuild of Europe’s energy backbone – not cyclical exposure to commodity prices.